Changing Climate, Changing Cereals:Adapting Cropping Systems to Future Stresses in Bangladesh.

Scale appropriate mechanization, surface water irrigation and impounding, resource conserving agronomic practices, and the use of short-duration wet season rice varieties may comprise the solution to intensifying cereal production on 800,000 hectares of dry season fallow land in the most climate change vulnerable areas of Southern Bangladesh. With a density of one person per 10 m2, the deltaic flood plain of the Ganges river system is one of the most densely populated and impoverished areas in the world. Production stresses to the predominant rice-based cropping system include sea level rise, tidal flooding, saline shallow water tables, terminal heat stress, soil salinity, increasing irrigation costs, and growing labor scarcity. Expanding populations will require increased food production to meet future cereals demand, although only 40% of the 3.4 million farming households in the region grow more than one crop per year. The Government of Bangladesh and FAO recently issued a Master Plan for Agricultural Development in the Southern Region (MASR) to guide donor interventions aimed at poverty reduction in the region. The MASR requests 7,225 million dollars of predominantly foreign aid investment by 2022 to foster agricultural climate change adaptation, and to increase food and nutrition security. This paper examines the limitations and opportunities of the current rice-based cropping pattern in consideration of the key stresses expected to curtail high-yielding cereal systems production under a changing climate. We review the opportunities to intensify dry season production using diversified and integrated cereal systems that produce multiple, high-value, and nutritious cereal and legume crops in addition to rice. To further guide policy development for Southern Bangladesh, we propose a typology of agronomic systems that can be used to adapt both wet and dry season cropping practices to climate change, while simultaneously addressing farm labor shortages and increasing rural energy prices.