AgMIP: Testing the Use of New Climate Scenarios in Global and Regional Agricultural Assessments.

Ensemble GCM and emission scenarios are now available through the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The AgMIP Climate Team is developing tools and products for their use in AgMIP multi-model ensemble intercomparisons (see www.agmip.org). These include 30-year timeslices for near-term, mid-century, and end-of-century, with a focus on daily and interannual extremes. This paper compares the new CMIP5 regional and global projections to those of CMIP3, answering such questions as ‘are the new projections significantly different in agricultural regions?’ ‘Is representation of extreme events relevant to agriculture improved?’, and ‘How should the agriculture research community handle projection uncertainty in difference regions?’ We will present the Climate Protocols, including the .AgMIP standard format, the AgMIP Atlas of CMIP5 scenarios for key AgMIP regions, and the QAQC standards for climate inputs, including moisture and wind, for the AgMIP Sentinel Sites. We will also present results from pilot comparisons of downscaling methods (NARCCAP, CORDEX) weather generation techniques (GIST), with special focus on developing regions. We will also describe the Representative Agricultural Pathways and their use as part of the AgMIP assessment process.