Effects of a Changing Relationship Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation On Yield Variability.

Many empirical studies have used precipitation data as a proxy for soil moisture in predicting yields. While this may be the natural outcome of precipitation data being more widely available than moisture, it may also limit the ability of empirical models to make yield projections based on future precipitation projections. Many climate change scenarios project drying in regions where precipitation is expected to remain roughly the same or even increase. In this study we explore methods of assessing the usefulness and importance of soil moisture versus precipitation in empirical models of yields, with an emphasis on interannual variability.