Quantifying the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Disturbance Regimes (including shale-gas development) on Northern Appalachian Forests.

Shale gas has had a dramatic and rapid effect on northern Appalachian ecosystems, especially forested areas. Gas infrastructure has fragmented forests potentially altering forest composition, increasing invasive species encroachment, promoting edge effects, and altering soil and hydrological regimes. We present initial modeling efforts using a landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS) that strives to capture long-term (300+ year) forest compositional change. In addition we asses changes in soil organic carbon stocks over the same time period. We compare shale-gas development to other disturbance kinds (deer browsing, harvesting, and insect outbreaks) to quantify the effect of shale-gas alone versus in conjunction with these other disturbances.