Feeding the World in 2050: The Role of Technology, Institutions and Policies.

Population and income growth, and new demands for biofuels will increase global demand for cereals by 56% by 2050 over a 2000 base, according to the latest projections of the International Food Policy Research Institute. At the same time, the amount of land and water available for cereals is expected to decline, putting pressure on increased yield growth to meet this demand. The paper will examine recent trends in yield growth for the breadbaskets of the world, for wheat, rice and maize, and the sources of existing yield gaps. Against these recent trends, prospects for increasing yields through higher levels of inputs, closing gaps in technical efficiency of using those inputs, and pushing out the yield frontier will be reviewed with a focus on the policy, investment, and institutional dimensions of the challenge ahead.