Climate Change and Agriculture in Middle East: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation Potential.

Countries of the MENA region are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change; many of them also prone to water scarcity and aridity. The region will become hotter and drier which will impact food security as well as general economic conditions.  The contribution of the agriculture sector to economic growth in most countries of the region is declining but remains the main consumer of water resources.  The contribution of agriculture to the total GDP averages to 12%. Most countries in the region have not paid adequate attention to the risk of climate change. The region highly vulnerable to declining resilience to increasing variability in climate conditions especially rising temperature and erratic rainfall patterns. Therefore it is imperative that good data is compiled for the current agricultural production systems, food security situation and rural livelihoods. This data will then form the baseline information for evaluation of climate change impacts.

The current paper reviews the current agricultural production system from the perspective of land, water, cropping systems and the local and regional markets that impact the availability of food in the country/region. The production systems adapted reflects many variables and in addition to local land conditions and water resources, other important factors include finance, technology and management practices. In addition to land availability, availability of good quality water is a major influence on crop production in this region, with 68% if crops dependent on rainfed agriculture and 20% on irrigation. Less precipitation and changing patterns have severely affected the agricultural production. These changes also affect the livestock industry and in a number of the Gulf States, whilst the milk and meat are locally produced, forage and supplementary feeds are imported.

Food security in the region is an issue at both national and house-hold levels. Since the region imports the bulk of the food the dietary patterns in different sub-regions influence the structure of local production systems and the composition of imported commodities. Some governments and investment corporations are seeking to secure food through international land purchases and development. At the house-hold level, government subsidies are an important part of managing everyday food (and fuel) prices.

Adaptation strategies to increasing variability in climate patterns need to be carefully designed and tested.  Implementation of these strategies will need to be considered at different levels, local, national and on regional levels. The strategies are likely to involve a combination of cropping patterns, integrated water and land management systems, and food energy systems. These strategies would require regulatory, financial and information policy instruments to enact the changes.

The paper will provide a synthesis of the current agricultural production system(s) and food security.  Its reviews the impact of climate change on agriculture and the adaptation strategies to overcome the potential food deficit in the Middle East and North Africa region.