Forecasting Carbon Storage of Eastern Forests: Can American Chestnut Restoration Improve Storage Potential in an Uncertain Future?.

Eastern deciduous forests represent an important proportion of the nation’s forest carbon (C) stores.  However, impending largely anthropogenic forest changes present unique challenges and opportunities for this important C pool. A legacy of direct and indirect human impacts have altered tree species composition of eastern deciduous forests at regional scales, and this trend is likely to continue as new exotic pests spread throughout the forest. For example, fire suppression, gypsy moth, and forest management practices have begun a regional-scale replacement of oaks (Quercus spp.) by red maple (Acer rubrum), a species with low wood density and rapid decay. Such changes may affect short-term C biogeochemistry, long-term C storage capacity, and the resilience of these forests to new pests and climate change. However, the imminent reintroduction of blight-resistant American chestnut (Castanea dentata) has potential to increase C storage and ameliorate declines in other tree genera because of its relative shade tolerance, rapid growth rate, large size, longevity, and decay resistance.

We are forecasting C dynamics on a landscape scale using factorial simulation experiments that involve five factors (prescribed fire, climate change, existing insect pests, potential insect pests, and chestnut restoration). Our simulations use a newly developed extension for the modular landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS-II) which drives a one-dimensional tree physiology model (PnET). The LANDIS-II model in PnET mode will enable us to combine our latest remote sensing, field, and literature data to simulate spatial changes in forest C. We present initial findings on the simulated effects of different chestnut restoration scenarios on forest C storage potential.