51-44 Predictive Modeling of the Effects of Climate Change on the Infestation Patterns of a Migratory Crop Pest Insect.

Poster Number 44

See more from this Division: Agriculture and Natural Resources Science for Climate Variability and Change: Transformational Advancements in Research, Education and Extension
See more from this Session: Project Director Meeting for Agriculture and Natural Resources Science for Climate Variability and Change
Monday, October 22, 2012
Duke Energy Convention Center, Junior Ballroom D, Level 3
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Rod Nagoshi1, S. Fleischer1, John Westbrook2 and R. Meagher1, (1)Center for Medical, Agricultural, and Veterinary Entomology, USDA-ARS, Gainsvile, FL
(2)APMRU, USDA ARS, College Station, TX
Poster Presentation
  • 51-44Nagoshi.pdf (6.4 MB)
  • Climate change is projected to expand the distribution of warm-climate agricultural pests
    with significant adverse economic consequences. Adapting U.S. agriculture to this
    emerging problem requires the timely monitoring of pest movements, an understanding
    of the meteorological factors that define migration, and the ability to forecast climateinduced
    changes in infestation patterns. We propose to use fall armyworm, a major pest
    in the Western Hemisphere, as a model system to address these objectives. The technical
    resources available for fall armyworm provides an unprecedented opportunity to study
    the effects of climate change on the migration of an important agricultural pest. We are in
    the process of establishing a monitoring infrastructure that uses fall armyworm as a
    bioindicator of climatic effects on migration. This will allow the development of
    forecasting models to identify agricultural regions likely to face climate-induced
    increases in fall armyworm pressure and thereby facilitate grower decision-making on
    agricultural practices and crop choice. These objectives apply directly to the long-term
    goal of improvements in the forecasting and controlling of pest outbreaks brought about
    by climate variability and long-term climate change.
    See more from this Division: Agriculture and Natural Resources Science for Climate Variability and Change: Transformational Advancements in Research, Education and Extension
    See more from this Session: Project Director Meeting for Agriculture and Natural Resources Science for Climate Variability and Change