Applications to Agriculture of Seasonal Climate Forecasts.

Improving tool accuracy: Linking seasonal climate forecasting with crop input decisions.

Although the accuracy and reliabilty ('skill') of seasonal climate forecasting may vary considerably from year to year and region to region with some periods and regions having high skill and other periods or regions having less skill, opportunities may exist to reduce management risks in the likely poorer seasons but to also capitialise on the potentially better seasons. Additional benefit can be gained in the development of seasonal climate forecasting systems that can provide practical output suitable for inclusion into crop and pasture simulation models. Appropriate attention to the level of complexity and scale of crop models that will be integrated with climate forecast models is important and need to link to the purpose of the manager's decisions. A number of examples will be presented that demonstrate the usefulness of development of integrated seasonal climate forecasting with crop simulation modelling at the farm scale and national or regional scales. Examples of the value of incorporating this approach will be provided with the noted key requirement that seasonal climate forecasts need to demonstrate the capability to change real management decisions if they are to be considered to have value. Aspects related to seasonal forecasting skill will also be explored.