Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Yields in the Midwestern United States.

The objective of this research was to evaluate the impact of future climate on maize yield across the Midwest.  Yields were simulated using the Systems Approach to Land Use Sustainability (SALUS) crop model, which calculates daily changes in crop growth in response to changing climate, soil, and management conditions. Using the new CMIP5 representative concentration pathways (RCP), we test the hypothesis that despite any potential benefits of CO2 fertilization, higher temperatures will lead to increased water- and heat-stress, while also shortening the grain filling period, resulting in an overall decrease in maize and soybean yields by the end of the century under current management practices. Adaption strategies with new cultivars and anticipated planting revealed insightful results.