230-6 Food for Thought: Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin in an Altered Future.
See more from this Division: ASA Section: Climatology & ModelingSee more from this Session: Climatology & Modeling: I
The objective of this work is to characterize how the net response of crop yield potential to temperature and CO2level increases in the Columbia River basin changes at multiple future time-scales. We look for potential for a shift in the sign of the net response over time and how this varies by crop type and location. We also explore how changes in planting dates and crop type/variety can help farmers to adapt.
Results for winter wheat and potatoes, both of which are economically important crops in the region, indicate that the net crop response has potential to switch signs over time, due to changes in the dominant effect. For alfalfa, the temperature effect on yields is non-monotonic, but the CO2 effect dominates the temperature effect and the combined effect is monotonic. Adaptation to a corn cultivar that has a longer time to maturity could bring down net yield reductions from 30% to about 10%. For the climate regime in the Columbia River basin, agricultural production in the region has a general positive outlook until various points in the future which are crop and location- dependent.
See more from this Session: Climatology & Modeling: I