230-11 Climate Change Assessment Using Precis-RCM Data for Hardwar District of Uttarakhand.
See more from this Division: ASA Section: Climatology & ModelingSee more from this Session: Climatology & Modeling: I
In view of this, the daily PRECIS RCM weather data (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature) was also downloaded for grid station Roorkee (29052’N and 770 53’E) for the period 2014-2090. This was bias corrected using linear correlation method. Trend analysis was done using Mann-Kendall test and Theil Sen’s Slope. Analysis of the bias corrected data revealed that the Roorkee station will in general record increasing trends in rainfall (@ 5.83 mm/year), maximum temperature (@ 0.050C/year) and minimum temperature (@ 0.040C/year). The PRECIS- RCM bias corrected trend line indicates that the present normal rainfall of 948 mm/year will rise @ 5.79 mm/ year and become 1446 mm/year by 2090. In case of maximum temperature of the present normal temperature of 28 0C will rise @ 0.047 oC/ year and become 32.00C whereas the minimum temperature of 16.10C will rise @ 0.038 oC and become 19.40C by 2090. Out of 77 year (2014-2090) it is observed that 14 years will be observed as drought years (<25 % of Normal) whereas 13 years will be the years of excessive rainfall (>25 % of Normal). The remaining 50 years will be observed as normal years with respect to rainfall occurrence.
After the completion of bias correction of PRECIS RCM data monthly trend analysis was made by using Mann Kendall Trend Test and slope was detected using Theil Sen’s method. Results indicated that rainfall during July (@ 4.4 mm/yr) and August (@ 4.68 mm/yr) will increase.
Bias corrected weather data was used to run DSSAT-Rice -CERES model to calculate yield under the best management practices with the currently available Rice varieties (12 numbers). It is observed that almost all the varieties showed a decreasing trend in their productivity after 2020. DSSAT was also run under changing CO2 levels (350, 450, 550, 650 and 750 ppm) and was observed that all the varieties responded positively.
Keywords: PRECIS, Climate change, Bias correction, Mann Kendall Trend test, Sen’s Slope.
See more from this Session: Climatology & Modeling: I