Crop-Livestock Intensification in the Face of Climate Change: Exploring Opportunities to Reduce Risk and Increase Resilience in Southern Africa Using an Integrated Multi-Modeling Approach.

Rainfed agricultural production supports more than 90% of farming families in southern Africa and this important livelihood activity is under threat due to climate change. In southern Africa changes in historical climate show increasing temperature trends and temperatures are projected to increase by 1-2oC, 2-3oC and 3-5oC in the near future, mid-century and end of century, respectively. Although rainfall direction and amplitude are uncertain, averages are projected to remain within or close to baseline variability; seasonality seems to remain unchanged, however with low confidence though there would be possible monthly rainfall reduction at the beginning of the rainy season. Considering that current production is very low and most families having only about 60% of own produced food annually, it will be imperative for research and development to develop adaptive strategies that can be used to improve food security and reduce poverty, climatic risk and increase resilience. We used an integrated multi-modeling approach for ex-ante impact assessment of climate change and adaptation strategies in heterogeneous smallholders farming communities in a particular context. We assessed the impact of climate change on crop and livestock production, looking at quantitative production with and without adaptations. We then integrate climate, crop and livestock projections within the Tradeoff Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional impact assessment to assess the economic impacts of climate change under selected adaptation strategies. The adaptation package was purposely designed for resource limited households under low and erratic rainfall conditions, with emphasis on low costs, implying low risk, and making use of locally available resources. The package consisted of long duration maize variety, converting 2/3 of maize land to maize-mucuna rotation and another 1/3 to maize under micro-dose (17 kg N/ha). About 30% of crop residues were left on the field and 70% fed to livestock. Crop and livestock production simulations were done using the Agricultural production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and Livestock Simulator (LivSIM), respectively. The results showed that adaptation reduces the proportion of households vulnerable to climate change from about 60% to 20%. Although up to 80% of the farms will possibly benefit from adaptation, the benefits will be relatively small (< 20% increases in farm net returns and per capita incomes). The benefits also differ by types of farms. Small farms (o cattle) will make small benefits from climate change adaptations (<200 USD farm net returns); while medium (1-8 cattle) and better off farms (> 8 cattle) can make up to 500 and 1200 USD higher per farm net returns, respectively. The impact adaptations on poverty levels is however limited. Adaptation can shift up to 20% of the large farms to higher welfare levels, but most small and medium size farms will remain below poverty line. This means that for the majority of rural families more drastic solutions have to be sought within and beyond agriculture as climate adaptations discussed here contribute to modest income gains. Interventions have to go beyond food security and climate change, and capacitate farming families towards alternative livelihood activities. Government and supportive agricultural policies will play a key role for promoting climate smart, resilient and profitable agriculture, along with effective public and private investment in research and development.