Forecasting Turfgrass Pest Pressure Under Future Climate Change.

A key paradigm in ecology states that species’ spatial abundance patterns will be non-randomly distributed across their geographic ranges. One hypothesis states that abundance patterns are best explained by the degree to which geographic areas fulfill species’ niche requirements.  Given that pest pressure is determined, at least in part, by pest abundance, the spatial distribution of factors describing a species’ niche may delineate areas with the greatest potential for elevated pest pressures.  This issue becomes particularly relevant in light of changing global climates, as it is expected that climate change will have a significant impact on future species’ distributions. Global climate change may therefore cause a change in resident turfgrass pest communities over time. Here, I describe a niche modeling approach that delineates the geographic ranges and predicts abundance patterns for two important turfgrass insects, Tipula paludosa Meigen and T. oleracea Linnaeus. The potential for changes in geographic ranges and abundance patterns are then described for other important turfgrass pests.