What Would Happen to Rice-Wheat Cropping System of Pakistan in Mid-Century? a Simulation Study.

Pakistan is one the most vulnerable countries to climate change because of its geographical location in semi-arid to arid part of the world. Climate change is characterized with increased temperature and rainfall variability with extreme weather events as well. Rice-Wheat cropping system plays an important role in food security and agricultural economy of this country. Changing climate is a big threat for productivity and sustainability of this system. The following study was planned to quantify the impact of climate change on Rice-Wheat cropping system of Punjab province of Pakistan under the umbrella of Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Calibrated crop model, DSSAT, was used to simulate the impact of future climate on crop production of this cropping system. Field data of 155 farmers were used from five districts of Punjab with Rice-wheat as a dominant cropping system. Crop Model DSSAT, simulated yield of 155 farms with R² (0.52), RMSE (425 kg ha^-1) and d-stat (0.78) for rice crop. In wheat crop simulation R², RMSE and d-stat were 0.64, 436 kg ha^-1 and 0.87, respectively. Due to changing climate, there would be reduction of 15.2% for rice yield and 14% for wheat yield during mid-century (2040-69). It is need of the hour to mitigate and adapt climate change to sustain the productivity of Rice-Wheat cropping system.