Monday, 7 November 2005 - 8:45 AM
26-4

Understanding the Decision-Making in Soybean Production Systems of the Argentinean Pampas: the Role and Usability of Climate Information.

Federico E. Bert1, Guillermo P. Podestá2, and Emilio H. Satorre1. (1) Catedra de Cerealicultura, Facultad de Agronomia, Universidad de Buenos Aires, San Martin 4453, Buenos Aires, Argentina, Buenos Aires, Argentina, (2) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Univ of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149

Although the growing availability of climate forecast offers the potential to tailor farmers' decision to expected climate, several conditions have to be met for this information to result in improved outcomes. Meeting these requirements begins with the detailed understanding of user needs and decision processes. The decision-making process of soybean production in the Argentine Pampas was studied. We worked with technical advisors from the region in order to understand the relevant aspects of soybean related decisions. We identified the factors influencing the main production decisions and the influence of climate variability and potential role of climate information on each decision. Also, a simple decision exercise was carried out to evaluate realistic adaptative management options under different climatic scenarios. Based on elicited information a simple conceptual model was developed describing the decision's sensitivity to climate and potential entry points to climate information. Information on likely seasonal climate conditions mainly influences decisions of sowing date and genotype selection. In these decisions, the expected climate played an important role, being the precipitation during crop flowering and harvest, the most relevant climate variables. Most advisors increase the proportion of land sowed with long maturity cultivars under La Niña years (when dry spring-summers are more likely) whereas, in El Niño (associated with rainier spring-summers), those advisors that modify the management, increase the proportion of short maturity cultivars. Although most advisors changed the soybean sowing date in response to the hypothetical climate scenarios presented, there was no consensus in the sense of the changes, may be suggesting difficulties in the evaluation of interactions between sowing date and climate scenarios. Our results highlight the need to continue the analysis including into the elicitation process, decision support tools to guide the advisors decisions under each climate scenario.

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