Impact of Warming On Wheat Yield Potential in India and Sudan.

Crop simulations models and a statistical model were used to investigate the impact of increasing growing season temperatures on wheat yield potential in the wheat cropping regions of India and Sudan. The crop simulation models and the statistical model showed a reductions in yield potential with an increase of temperature under well irrigated and well fertilized conditions. The lowest yields were simulated in the southern wheat growing regions of India and in most regions of Sudan. The lower yielding environments, due to already higher growing season temperatures, showed higher relative yield reductions with increasing temperatures than higher yielding environments and can be considered as ‘hotspots’ for future temperature impacts. Therefore, warmer location, and probably also rain-fed and low input wheat crops, will suffer more yield reductions with increasing temperature. As temperature increases are projected with climate change in these regions and all model results showed yield reductions with increasing temperatures, breeding for heat tolerant wheat will be critical to mitigate climate change impacts particularly in the southern wheat growing regions of India and in general for Sudan. The wide range in simulated temperature impacts indicates uncertainty in impact modeling and requires further field experimental validation.