Climate Change Impacts On West African Agriculture.

Climate Change, Agriculture and the Future of West African Economies: For the West African Region, dominated by agrarian communities, agriculture depends to a large extent on Nature’s control. This makes agricultural production vulnerable to climate and its vagaries. Farmers in the past had to constantly confront climate variability and have to some extent developed some indigenous ways (Indigenous Knowledge: IK) to minimize the adverse impacts. However, the coupled effect of climate change and variability is beyond the ability of IK. The scientific evidence indicated persistent future increases in ambient temperature and an increased variability in rainfall, with totals decreasing in some parts of the sub-region but also increasing in others. For example, projections made with the HadCM3 GCM indicate an increase in air temperature by 1.7 to 2.2°C and a decline in rainfall of about 20% by 2040 at Nioro du Rip, in the peanut basin of Senegal. These changes would have consequences for agricultural production and food security in the West African Region.   Since March 2012, the CIWARA (West African AgMIP) team of researchers drawn from different disciplines in socio-economics, climate science, and crop modeling across 5 West African countries (Senegal, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Ghana) have embarked on an integrative assessment of climate change impacts on future agricultural productivity in the region.  Preliminary analysis of millet growth in the Nioro basin of Senegal using tools and methodologies developed by AgMIP indicates that the yield would decline by 44-48% by the middle of this century due to the combined effect of increasing temperatures and declining rainfall, based on HadCM3 GCM projections. These would translate to 70% of households loosing income. Currently, the integrative assessments are being applied to other sites in the region.    The major task ahead is to determine what major interventions would be required to sustain agricultural production in the future. For this, adaptation scenarios and Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPS) are being developed. It is expected that the projected agricultural productivity and the RAPS should provide a strong basis for dialoguing on climate change impact on agriculture with policy makers.