Modeling The Impacts Of a Variable and Changing Climate On Rice and Sugarcane In Sri Lanka.

Rice is the principal food crop in Sri Lanka and there has been a steady increase in rice production from 1950 leading to near self-sufficiency in feeding the population of 20 million. The contributions of the rice sector to the GDP are around 1.8%, respectively but its importance is manifold for livelihoods and food security.   Sugarcane cultivation is undertaken on marginal lands in terms of water availability. At present, the national annual sugar production caters to 10-12% of the country's requirement. But since last year, it is a national goal to expand cultivation to substantially reduce the costs of imports.  Rice and Sugarcane farms are generally small and  crops are grown in complex, diverse and risk-prone environments particularly to climate change  However, there is little reliable information available and uncertainty and integration across climate-crop and economics is not addressed– a lacuna that this project shall address.The AgMIP team of climate, crop, economics and information technology specialists are working in partner institutions at the Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology (FECT), Sugarcane Research Institute, Department of Agriculture and the Universities of Peradeniya, Ruhuna, and Rajarata seek to address the modeling challenges faced by the rice and sugarcane sector in relation to a variable and changing climate. Our project team has rapidly undertaken work in climate downscaling using multiple models, crop modeling using DSSAT, APSIM and STICS, and econometric modeling using TOA-MD models. Substantially effort is being invested in developing databases. We have also engaged actively with stakeholders at village scale, river-basin scale, sugar industry and with the staff of the Department of Agriculture. An integrated crop-climate and economic modeling exercise was completed. We have initiated the development of representative agricultural pathways.  Research abstracts have been presented by our team members.