Simulation Modeling of Genotype x Environment Interactions in Wheat Response to High Temperature.

The current consensus among climate model projections indicates that annual average temperatures are expected to increase between 1 and 3 degrees C in major wheat growing areas around the world. This increase is especially important to consider given that half of these areas already experience some level of heat stress during the growing season. Thus, understanding wheat heat response is critical for developing effective climate change mitigation strategies. A simulation modeling study was undertaken to evaluate model performance for wheat sown under normal and raised temperature conditions near Ciudad Obregon in NW Mexico. The CSM-CROPSIM-Wheat model was calibrated for 40 genotypes with contrasting response to heat using phenology, total biomass, yield and yield components data from 2012. Data collected in 2011 from the same 40 genotypes were used for model evaluation. Potential model improvements needed to enhance simulation of high temperature effects will be discussed.