Corn Aflatoxin Contamination Risk Prediction Based On a Drought Index.

Spatial and temporal changes in corn aflatoxin contamination are common in the Southeast U.S. however risk prediction is complex because it development is influenced by several interacting factors such as microclimatic conditions, use of fertilizers, and insect attacks.  The use of a drought index to predict the risk for corn aflatoxin contamination was evaluated using field data collected in Mississippi over 11 growing seasons. The data used for this study consisted of historic records of aflatoxin contamination from 2000 to 2011 collected from field test evaluating the interactions of corn hybrid, soil type and inoculation methods. The Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID) was evaluated as a tool for aflatoxin risk prediction.  Monthly values of ARID were calculated for every soil type and years included on the field study. A logistic regression was performed to test the relationship between monthly ARID values and corn aflatoxin level exceeding 20 ppb, the restricted level on corn use for animal feed. Results from the logistic regression will show the aflatoxin risk predictability using the ARID index as well as the months during the growing season with the highest likelihood for corn aflatoxin contamination