The African Green Revolution at the Tipping Point

The world can certainly feed itself with a population of 9-10 billion by 2050 provided that governments are at peace and their policies follow technological advances that provide yield increases in environmentally sensitive ways. At present, average cereal yields (in t/ha) are: Sub-Saharan Africa 1; Latin America and South Asia: 3; China: 5, and North America/Europe 10. I will focus on the extremes.  Sub-Saharan Africa, largely due to better governance is growing faster than any other region (GDP growth about 7%/yr in the better governed countries not depending on oil exports) especially those with significant growth of indigenous capital, the private sector and higher government budgets allocated to agriculture value chains. Basic food crop yields have doubled or tripled by smallholder farmers with policies focused on improved germplasm and fertilizer use. We may see an average yield similar to Latin America´s by 2020 in Africa with the potential for 5 t/ha in the next decade. The developed countries see going from 10 to 16 t/ha with significantly less N, water and diesel fuel. Examples of some key innovations will be presented. While there are many challenges, the gross bottom line seems feasible with the combination of new technologies and enabling government policies.