198-3 Multi Model-Based Analysis of Climate Change Impact in Maize Mega-Environments.
Poster Number 1018
Method: We simulated maize grain yields at CIMMYT representative stations using process-based models, such as APSIM-Maize, CERES-Maize, MAIZIM, and a statistical model to evaluate and identify the potential of the different modeling approaches for identifying hot spots of climate change impact for the respective mega environments. For the increased scenarios, the historical daily maximum and minimum temperatures were increased by 1 – 4C, for example Baseline+1C, Baseline+2C, Baseline+3C, and Baseline+4C and each model simulated under two CO2 conditions, 380and 550 ppm, respectively. Yield changes were compared across sites and models.
Preliminary results: The simulation models agreed for most locations, but differed widely in actual yields. With increasing temperature, all models showed declining grain yields with an increase in relative variability. Especially, with temperature increase of +4C, the simulated grain yield decreased for all the models. All models used in this study agreed that warmer locations would have lower yields due to already higher growing season temperatures. Overall, there was a reduction in all the simulated yields and biomass as the growing season temperature increased.
Keywords: Maize mega-environments, heat wave, drought, crop model, climate change