Framework to Estimate Exposure of Agricultural Production to Climate Change and Variability in Vulnerability Assessments.

The vulnerability of a system to climate change is often characterized as a function of the system’s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Estimating the exposure of agriculture to climate variability and change can help us understand key vulnerabilities and improve adaptive capacity which has implications on beef cattle production. In this study, our definition of exposure is tailored for agricultural production: the presence of agro-ecosystems and their environmental functions, services, and resources, in places and settings that could be adversely affected by climate stress due to natural disasters and climate variability arising from mean and extreme events affecting its production.

A number of indices are available in literature to estimate exposure and no systematic methodology has been developed to guide users in selecting indices (EI) for particular applications.  We address this need by developing a framework in the form of a flowchart. The flowchart provides options that guide estimating exposure index (EI) by selecting the most appropriate stressor(s), associated climate factors (CF), and aggregation methods when a detailed methodological analysis is possible, or proposes a default method when data or resources do not allow a detailed analysis. Here, the term stressors refers to events/variables/natural hazards that cause stress to agriculture (e.g., temperature). CF refers to variables (e.g., crop failure temperature) or statistics (e.g., standard precipitation index, coefficient of variation in rainfall) that are calculated to represent one or more stressors. The flowchart is explained by applying it to Kansas.