Integrative Ecosystem Service Assessment Using Bayesian Belief Networks.

Title: Integrative Ecosystem Service Assessment Using Bayesian Belief Networks Authors: P. Chaikaew1,2, S. Grunwald1, S. Daroub3, T.A. Martin4, H.W. Beck5 A.W. Hodges6 1Soil and Water Science Dept, University of Florida, 2181 McCarty Hall A, PO Box 110290, Gainesville, Florida, 32611, USA 2Department of Environmental Science, Chulalongkorn University, 254 Payathai Rd., Pathumwan, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand 3Everglades Research and Education Center, Soil and Water Science Dept., University of Florida, 3200 E Palm Beach Rd., Belle Glade, Florida, 33430, USA 4Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, 359 Newins-Ziegler Hall, PO Box 110410, Gainesville, Florida, 32611, USA 5Agricultural and Biological Engineering Bldg. 162, PO Box 110495, Gainesville, Florida, 32611, USA 6Food and Resource Economics Dept., University of Florida, 1113 McCarty Hall B, PO Box 110240, Gainesville, Florida, 32611, USA Abstract Climate regulation, carbon sequestration, and nutrient cycling ecosystem services are critical to quantify the quality and functioning of ecosystems. Very often ecosystem service measures are based merely on biophysical studies, but those do not necessarily match the values and beliefs people hold about these ecosystem services. Research gaps exist to integrate biophysical, ecological, and socio-economic perspectives across ecosystem domains covering the atmosphere, biosphere, pedosphere, hydrosphere, and anthroposphere. This study presents a framework to bundle and harmonize ‘biophysical and ecological’ and ‘human perceived benefits’. Our specific objective was to synthesize interactions between ecosystem services under different scenarios. We employed a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model that included important system variables and beliefs derived from empirical observations, statistical and quantitative assessments, socio-economic survey results, literature, and expert knowledge. Four distinct scenarios were considered: Grow with Awareness (GA), Gain Economic value (GE), Go toward the Protection (GP), and Business as Usual (BU). A parameter sensitivity analysis revealed the sensitivity of variables towards the selected ecosystem services. The scores of the BBN assessing ecosystem services ranked as following: GA (62.74) > BU (48.73) ~GP (48.51) > GE (-59.08). Scenarios represent imagined possible future outcomes that are highly influenced by the perception and valuation of people, public awareness, decision making, and politics. Focusing on awareness enhancement rather than economic growth allows more room for improving the environment and benefits people derive from them. The synthesis of different realms and perspectives made this BBN ecosystem service study more holistic when compared to more one-sided environment investigations.