Climate Variability and Adaptation Options for Cereal Crops in the Southeast USA.

The winter and spring climate is strongly influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which suggest that agronomic management could be adjusted to reduce potential climate-related risks or take advantage of favorable conditions to crop production. This study, using data collected in the states of Georgia (GA) and Alabama (AL) USA, summarize the results of several research projects looking at the relationship between ENSO, wheat yield, wheat planting date and variety selection, and insect pests as means to adjust management.  Results indicated that the effect of ENSO on wheat yield is site-specific. Lower winter wheat yield on southern counties of GA and AL during La Niña years (warmer- dryer winters and spring) was observed compared to El Niño years. In contrast, the opposite was observed for the northern counties in Alabama and no yield differences among ENSO phases in northern GA. During La Niña years, significant yield losses associated with delayed planting were observed in South AL compared to North AL with a late maturity variety exhibiting the greatest losses compared to early maturity varieties. Lower yield losses with delayed planting were observed during El Niño compared to La Niña years. Hessian Fly infestation (HFI) also changed among ENSO phases. Higher HFI was observed during La Niña with large yield differences between resistant and susceptible varieties during those years compared to El Niño or Neutral years. There findings suggest that management strategies such as planting date, variety selection, acreage planted should be modified based on the ENSO climate forecast as means to build resilience and mitigate the effects of climate variability.