Potential for Wheat Production Under Current and Future Climate in Africa- the Case of Egypt.

Egypt is characterized by a highly variable Mediterranean climate with acute water scarcity while it currently requires 19 million tons (M t) of wheat annually and produces about 10 M t a year from 1.3 M ha irrigated land. The remaining half of wheat demand is imported, making Egypt the largest wheat importer worldwide. The gap between demand and production may increase and Egypt may face additional food insecurity from climate change. Potential of wheat production under current and future climate was quantified using three crop models-CERES, NWheat and CROPSIM in the DSSAT modeling platform. The crop models were calibrated with local cultivars with field experiments (2011-2014) from four locations in Egypt. Three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration pathways (RCPs), covering uncertainties in emissions and GCM projections, were used to create climate change impact scenarios for three future time periods: 2030s, 2050s and 2080s. Impacts of the climate change scenarios were quantified relative to a baseline period of 1980-2010 considering current and future (new) agricultural land. Simulated yields were scaled-up with measured and estimated experimental yields to country production. Results suggested that wheat yield will likely be negatively affected by future climate in Egypt. The country’s wheat demand, according to the scenarios considered in this study, will increase to ca. 57 M t with production deficit of ca. 35 M t by the end of the century due to climate change and increasing population (2% growth rate per year). An important adaptation option for Egypt to narrow the gap between demand and production is by expanding wheat production area.

Key words: Crop model, Climate change, Wheat, Egypt