Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification.

The literature on sustainable intensification (SI) of agriculture sets a helpful direction, but has not provided robust goals for either production increases or environmental improvement.  SI production goals often appear clear and compelling, yet widespread calls for doubling production by 2050 are flawed and may lead to excessive focus on increasing output.  SI environmental targets, in contrast, are unclear and lack urgency.  We argue that the SI goals must be recalibrated to provide equally quantitative and compelling targets for increasing production and improving environmental outcomes.  Our analysis shows that, largely due to recent production gains, increases of ~30-70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand.  At the same time, aggregate environmental impacts must drop sharply to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning.  We review and update the main projections of world food demand, illustrate examples of the environmental improvements needed by 2050, and propose changes to research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals.