Can Sub-Saharan Africa Feed Itself?.

Whilst global food demand is expected to increase 60% compared to 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because until 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals more than triple, while current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this enormous increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on imports or massive expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Based on analyses from the Global Yield Gap Atlas, we estimate it will not be feasible, by a large margin, to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by closing the gap between current and potential crop yields (yield gap closure). In contrast, other recent studies indicate that the global increase in cereal demand by 2050 can be met through yield gap closure on existing cropland. Our yield gap analysis for ten countries in SSA using location-specific data and a robust spatial upscaling approach reveals that in addition to yield gap closure other, highly uncertain and more complicated, components of intensification are also needed, i.e. increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 months on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. While it is essential that research and development investments place a high priority on these intensification components to achieve food security in SSA, it is equally important to achieve this intensification in an ecologically sound manner. If intensification is not successful, both massive cropland expansion and dependence of SSA on imports of cereals are likely to become reality.