Analyzing Hydrotreated Renewable Jet Fuel (HRJ) Feedstock Availability Using Crop Simulation Modeling.

While hydrotreated renewable jet fuel (HRJ) has been demonstrated for use in commercial and military aviation, a challenge to large-scale adoption is availability of cost competitive feedstocks. Brassica oilseed crops like Brassica napus, B. rapa, B. juncea, B. carinata, Sinapis alba, and Camelina sativa could be used as HRJ feedstocks, but is important to understand where these might be produced most inexpensively as a feedstock while being profitable for farmers to grow. A crop simulation modeling approach can be used to spatially analyze where these oilseeds are economically profitable to produce, quantify potential oilseed supply, and evaluate impacts on natural resources and the environment. This approach is demonstrated for canola or rapeseed (B. napus) production in North Dakota and portions of Montana, where break-even profitability modeling was used to compare the profitability of growing canola relative to other annual crops for a range of oilseed prices. Based on break-even profitability modeling, canola production for jet fuel would be expected to occur primarily in areas of SW and NW North Dakota, with the production area expanding at higher oil price levels. Effects on soil organic carbon (SOC) and wind and water erosion would vary geographically. These effects are related to the specific production shifts expected to occur at each geographic location. While some canola production would occur in place of fallow, production of several other crops could be displaced by increased canola production.