The Value of Multi-Scale Weather-within-Climate Information and Forecasts for Decision Support in Agriculture.

Usually, the skill of seasonal climate forecast indicates the value of that information towards decision-making, be it at the farmers’ or at the policy level. Seasonal climate forecast’s skill varies by season and geographic locations. Seasonal climate forecasts are notoriously low-to-moderate skills with the exception when ENSO signal is strong. Regardless, seasonal climate forecast are valuable information for planning strategic decisions. One may ask in this situation, is climatology better? On the contrary, we should craft the question like this, is there a value of merging of multi-scale weather-within-climate information with seasonal climate forecasts to enhance skill or information for decision support per se? In this paper, we present a novel approach of integrating multi-scale climate information from monitored, climatology and forecasts to improve the value of climate information for decision support in agriculture. We will show also the value to improving a seasonal climate forecasting system from a baseline. A case study from India will be presented.