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260-13
See more from this Division: ASA Section: Climatology and Modeling
See more from this Session: Climatology and Modeling Oral
Tuesday, November 8, 2016: 4:20 PM
Phoenix Convention Center North, Room 126C
Abstract:
As the climate changes, increasing variation in environmental factors directly influence crop cultivation at different magnitudes over a broad range of local communities worldwide. As a result, there is an urgent need to develop local impact assessments and adaptation strategies for use at local, rather than national or global, levels. In this study, we predicted the future frost damage of kiwifruit in the Jeonnam Province, Korea, as a case study for the local impact assessment of climate change. This study included a series of models that integrated both the biological responses of plants and the physical influences of climatic factors. First, potential changes in the optimal area for kiwifruit cultivation under a changing climate were simulated. Through the development of a frost-forecasting model and linking it to a kiwifruit phenology model, we also assessed the interaction of plant and climatic factors. Because of the warming climate, the frequency of spring frosts decreased, and the last frost date occurred increasingly earlier in spring. Nevertheless, the potential risk of spring frost damage of kiwifruit continued to exist at a similar magnitude because bud bursting of kiwifruit also occurred earlier. Additional study at the county level indicated that the date of bud bursting is advancing even faster than the last frost date, resulting in the increasing risk of spring frost damage for kiwifruit through 2100. In this study, we assessed the local impacts of climate change on kiwifruit cultivation in Jeonnam Province using the integrated modeling approach. As such, local policy makers and stakeholders will be able to prepare more realistic adaptation strategies to cope with upcoming threats in a changing climate.
See more from this Division: ASA Section: Climatology and Modeling
See more from this Session: Climatology and Modeling Oral