Anatomy of the 2016 Drought in New York State: Implications for Agriculture and Water Resources.

Low winter snowpack in 2015-16 followed by one of the warmest, driest summers on record led to historically low streamflows and worsening drought conditions throughout much of the Northeastern (NE) US in 2016. To understand the 2016 drought in a historical context, the impact on farmers, and implications for water resources across New York (NY) State we: 1) analyzed long-term NY climate and streamflow data, 2) surveyed NY farmers, and 3) modeled NY agricultural crop irrigation water use. Survey results indicated that >70% of rainfed field crops and pastures had losses >30%, with some loses >90%. Losses >30% were reported even for irrigated crops due to limited water supplies and irrigation equipment. A majority of farmers ranked the economic impact of the drought as moderate or severe, and over half believe drought will occur more frequently in the future. After what they experienced in 2016, several farmers are now investing in irrigation equipment and water sources to better prepare for drought. Model estimates suggest crop irrigation water use could increase by 3-8 times in dry compared to average years. This is important because agricultural water use in NY is not well documented and because severe short-term summer droughts are likely to increase in frequency in the NE. Further, given the economic importance of irrigation, even in humid climates, we are likely to see an increase in irrigation demands in regions such as NY. Even in an exceptionally dry year like 2016, many areas in the NE have adequate amounts of water in lakes and canals to sustain irrigation needs, but the infrastructure to move water from these bodies to farms is lacking. More research on improving farmers’ adaptive capacity to drought and improving irrigation infrastructure is crucial to help famers and water resource managers prepare for future drought risk.