Global Wheat Production Affected By Increasing Temperature and Elevated CO2.

AgMIP-Wheat Team: S. Asseng, P. Martre, A. Maiorano, R.P. Rötter, G.J. O’Leary, G.J. Fitzgerald, C. Girousse, R. Motzo, F. Giunta, M.A. Babar, M.P. Reynolds, A.M.S. Kheir, P.J. Thorburn, K. Waha, A.C. Ruane, P.K. Aggarwal, M. Ahmed, J. Balkovi?, B. Basso, C. Biernath, M. Bindi, D. Cammarano, A.J. Challinor, G. De Sanctis, B. Dumont, E. Eyshi Rezaei, E. Fereres, R. Ferrise, M. Garcia-Vila, S. Gayler, Y. Gao, H. Horan, G. Hoogenboom, R.C. Izaurralde, M. Jabloun, C.D. Jones, B.T. Kassie, K.C. Kersebaum, C. Klein, A.K. Koehler, B. Liu, S. Minoli, M. Montesino San Martin, C. Müller, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Nendel, J.E. Olesen, T. Palosuo, J.R. Porter, E. Priesack, D. Ripoche, M.A. Semenov, C. Stöckle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, M. Van der Velde, D. Wallach, E. Wang, H. Webber, J. Wolf, L. Xiao, Z. Zhang, Z. Zhao, Y. Zhu and F. Ewert --- Abstract: Crop simulation models are a key tool to assess the potential impact of future climate change scenarios on crop production. Applying crop models in a multi-model ensemble can significantly increase the precision of impact simulations. Simulation results from a 32-wheat-model ensemble within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project show that the potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on global wheat yield will be mostly lost due to the simultaneous negative impact from rising temperature. Breeding for delayed flowering combined with an increasing grain filling rate could counteract some of the negative temperature impact on yield, but the effect will vary with region.