Uncertainties In Assessing the Impact of Climate Change with Crop Models: The AgMIP Wheat Pilot Study.

S. Asseng[1], F. Ewert[2], C. Rosenzweig[3], J.W. Jones¹, J.L. Hatfield[4], A. Ruane³, K.J. Boote[5], P. Thorburn[6], R.P. Rötter[7], D. Cammarano¹, N. Brisson[8]^,[9],#, B. Basso[10]^,[11],[12], P. Martre[13]^,[14], D. Ripoche[15], P. Bertuzzi¹⁵, P. Steduto[16], L. Heng[17], M.A. Semenov[18], P. Stratonovitch¹⁸, C. Stockle[19], G. O’Leary[20], P.K. Aggarwal[21], S. Naresh Kumar[22], C. Izaurralde[23], J.W. White[24], L.A. Hunt[25], R. Grant[26], K.C. Kersebaum[27], T. Palosuo⁷, J. Hooker[28], T. Osborne[29], J. Wolf[30], I. Supit³⁰, J.E. Olesen[31], J. Doltra[32], C. Nendel²⁷, S. Gayler[33], J. Ingwersen[34], E. Priesack[35], T. Streck³⁴, F. Tao[36], C. Müller[37], K. Waha³⁷, R. Goldberg³, C. Angulo², I. Shcherbak¹¹, C. Biernath³⁵, D. Wallach[38], M. Travasso[39], A. Challinor[40]^,41

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[1] Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA, email: sasseng@ufl.edu, jimj@ufl.edu, davide.cammarano@ufl.edu

[2] Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, Universität Bonn, 53115, Germany, email: fewert@uni-bonn.de, klav@uni-bonn.de

[3] NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, email: cynthia.rosenzweig@nasa.gov, aruane@giss.nasa.gov, ccrag1@yahoo.com

[4] National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, Ames, IA 50011, email: jerry.hatfield@ars.usda.gov,

[5] Department of Agronomy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0500, USA, email: kjboote@ufl.edu,

[6] CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Dutton Park QLD 4102, Australia, email: peter.thorburn@csiro.au,

[7] Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, FI-50100 Mikkeli, Finland, email: reimund.rotter@mtt.fi & taru.palosuo@mtt.fi,

[8] INRA, UMR0211 Agronomie, F- 78 750 Thiverval-Grignon, France,

[9] AgroParisTech, UMR0211 Agronomie, F- 78 750 Thiverval-Grignon, France,

[10] University of Potenza, Potenza, PZ 85100, Italy, email: brunobasso1@gmail.com,

[11]Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA

[12]Institute Sustainable Resources, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia

[13] INRA, UMR1095 Genetic, Diversity and Ecophysiology of Cererals (GDEC), F-63 100 Clermont-Ferrand, France, email: pierre.marte@clermont.inra.fr,

[14] Blaise Pascal University, UMR1095 GDEC, F-63 170 Aubière, France

[15] INRA, INRA, US1116 AgroClim, F- 84 914 Avignon, France, email: dominique.ripoche@avignon.inra.fr,

[16] FAO, Rome, Italy, email: Pasquale.Steduto@fao.org,

[17] IAEA, Vienna, Austria, email: L.Heng@iaea.org,

[18] Centre for Mathematical and Computational Biology, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts, AL5 2JQ, UK, email: mikhail.semenov@bbsrc.ac.uk,

[19] Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-6120, email: stockle@wsu.edu,

[20] Landscape & Water Sciences, Department of Primary Industries, Horsham 3400, Australia, email: garry.O'leary@dpi.vic.gov.au,

[21] CCAFS, IWMI, NASC Complex, DPS Marg, New Delhi 12, India, email: pkaggarwal.iari@gmail.com,

[22] Division of Environmental Sciences, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi 110 012, India, email: nareshkumar.soora@gmail.com,

[23] Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD 20740, USA, email: cesar.izaurralde@pnnl.gov,

[24] Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, AZ 85138, USA, email: jeffrey.white@ars.usda.gov,

[25] Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada, N1G 2W1, email: thunt@uoguelph.ca,

[26] Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada T6G 2E3, email: Robert.Grant@ales.ualberta.ca,

[27] Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany, email:ckersebaum@zalf.de & nendel@zalf.de,

[28] School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, RG6 6AR, UKemail: j.hooker@reading.ac.uk,

[29] NCAS & Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, UK,email: t.m.osborne@reading.ac.uk,

[30] Plant Production Systems & Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands, email: joost.wolf@wur.nl & iwan.supit@wur.nl,

[31] Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, 8830, Tjele, Denmark, email: jorgene.olesen@agrsci.dk,

[32] Agricultural Research and Training Centre (CIFA), Cantabria Government, 39600 Muriedas, Spain, email: jordidoltra@cifacantabria.org,

[33] WESS-Water & Earth System Science Competence Cluster, University of Tübingen, 727074 Tübingen, Germany, email: Sebastian.gayler@uni-tuebingen.de,

[34] Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Universität Hohenheim, 70599 Stuttgart, email: joachim.ingwersen@uni-hohenheim.de & tstreck@uni-hohenheim.de,

[35] Institute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, D-85764, Germany, email: priesack@helmholtz-muenchen.de & christian.biernath@helmholtz-muenchen.de,

[36] Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, China, email: taofl@igsnrr.ac.cn,

[37]Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany, email: christoph.mueller@pik-potsdam.de & katharina.waha@pik-postdam.de,

[38] INRA, UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et développement territorial (AGIR), 31326 Castanet-Tolosan Cedex, France, email: daniel.wallach@toulouse.inra.fr,

[39] Institute for Climate and Water, INTA-CIRN, 1712 Castelar, Argentina,

email: mtravasso@cnia.inta.gov.ar,

[40] Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK, email: a.j.challinor@leeds.ac.uk,

⁴¹ CGIAR Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS),

^#Dr. Nadine Brisson died during the study in 2011.

Crop simulation models are widely used to estimate the impact of climate change on crop yields. Such studies are often carried out with a single or small number of models in a limited number of environments without determining the uncertainty of the crop model impact estimates. The need for a coordinated effort bringing together multiple modelling teams has been recognized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org). AgMIP aims to provide more robust estimates of climate impacts on crop yields and agricultural trade, including estimates of associated uncertainties. Here, we present the AgMIP Wheat Pilot Study, the most comprehensive model intercomparison of the response of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) to climate change to date, including 27 wheat models. Outcomes of the model intercomparison and implications for model improvement and climate change impact assessment are discussed.

See more from this Division: ASA Section: Climatology & Modeling
See more from this Session: Symposium--the Agmip Project: Comparison of Model Approaches to Simulation of Crop Response to Global Climate Change Effects of Carbon Dioxide, Water and Temperature

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