U.S. Agricultural Production Under Future Climate Scenarios: Implications of Estimated Shifts in Regional Yield, Variance, and Covariance Using EPIC Simulations.

ERS’ Regional Environment and Agriculture Programming (REAP) model has historically used average yield estimates for  regional crop rotations derived from EPIC modeling to calibrate production acreage and regional production in its economic analyses. In this analysis, EPIC is used to estimate regional crop yields under a set of GCM-derived future climate conditions, which then permits REAP to project how patterns of production in the U.S. may change under different possible climate scenarios for the year 2030. The current analysis also modifies REAP to integrate a consideration of variance and covariance among yields under different climate futures to explore how such variance, coupled with attitudes toward risk in production decision-making, might further impact future production patterns.