Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Improve Food Security for Qatar.

Improving food security requires informed decisions on a number of issues including climate, crop, water, soil and financial risk management.   In this paper, we use some case-study examples to illustrate how crop simulation models can be used to analyse the threats and opportunities arising from climate variability for a focus crop at selected locations.  Given the climate and soil constraints in Qatar, our studies focus on greenhouse and open field vegetable production systems in Qatar and rainfed Broadacre wheat grain production in selected locations in Australia. Long term climate records along with seasonal climate forecast information for selected locations in Qatar and Australia will be used to estimate yield stability under climate change scenarios for focus crops. These case studies demonstrate the principles of our research project, funded by the Qatar National Research Fund (QNRF) through its National Research Priority Program, in that the agro-ecological characterisation   of a site of interest is analysed using a crop growth model to firstly indicate the growth and development potential of selected crops, productivity in terms of yield and quality, and what would be the likely effects of climate change on yield potential.