Seasonal Forecasts for the Midwest US: Reducing the Impact of Variable Weather.

Weather variability affects crop production both directly and indirectly across the Midwest. Variation in production of all crops and livestock can be related to weather patterns which occur throughout the year.  The trend toward increased variability in the weather will continue to impact the efficiency of crop and livestock production and producers will benefit from both an improved understanding of the role of weather variation on agriculture but a seasonal forecast of weather related to agricultural management. Shifts in seasonality of precipitation toward increased spring precipitation have already affected the number of workable field days in the spring with a decrease of 3.8 days in the period from April through mid-May. This change has created problems in planting and crop establishment along with increased erosion due to the increased intensity of rainfall events. A seasonal forecast for the first portion of the growing season would help producers plan for the length of the growing season created by delays in planting and also potential problems caused by soil-borne diseases due to wet soils. The increase in cover crops across the Midwest has prompted questions from producers about management of the cover crop relative to planting of the summer crop and incorporating an early season forecast would enhance management decisions. Management of nutrients and pesticides would be enhanced through better seasonal forecasts for the mid-season since applications are often delayed by untimely rainfall events. Variation in production within a field and across a region is related to the weather pattern the crop encounters during the growing season and providing better forecasts linked with information of how weather impacts each portion of the growth cycle of crops would potentially reduce the variation in yields. For livestock a forecast of extreme events, hot or cold, during the weather would help producers implement management practices needed to offset these stresses and maintain production efficiency. Enhanced seasonal forecasts would benefit agriculture through better information to inform decision making.