Managing Global Resources for a Secure Future

2017 Annual Meeting | Oct. 22-25 | Tampa, FL

201-6 Analysis of the Potato Production Under Climate Change through Crop Modeling.

See more from this Division: ASA Section: Climatology and Modeling
See more from this Session: Examples of Model Applications in Field Research Oral

Tuesday, October 24, 2017: 11:00 AM
Tampa Convention Center, Room 12

Rubi Raymundo, Agronomy and Plant Genetics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, Senthold Asseng, 221 Frazier Rogers Hall, PO Box 110570, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, Richard Robertson, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washingtong DC, DC and Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ag. and Bio. Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
Abstract:
Potato is the most important non-grain crop worldwide and the impact of climate change on potato production will be critical for global food security. Crop models can be robust means to assess the impacts of climate change and potential adaptations if models are well tested and proven to reproduce field-based experiments. Many models have been used in climate change impact assessments, but they often lack comprehensive field-testing. SUBSTOR-potato model is widely used to assess the impact of climate change on potato crop; nevertheless, the model lacks of field-testing for high levels of atmospheric CO2 and heat stress conditions. In this study, we analyzed the performance of the SUBSTOR-potato with field experiments across the world including treatments under high temperature environments and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The SUBSTOR-potato model simulated well tuber growth and yields over a wide range of current growing conditions and crop management practices across many geographic regions. However, the model response under elevated atmospheric CO2 and high temperature environments were poorly simulated. Model routines were improved and implemented to capture the impact of high temperatures and high levels of atmospheric CO2 on crop development. When using the improved model across 0.5x0.5 degree grid cells over all potato growing regions in the world, the simulated aggregated country tuber dry yields reproduced nationally-reported potato yields with a RRMSE of 56%. Applying future climate change scenarios to current potato cropping systems indicated small global tuber yield reductions by 2055 (-2 to -6 %), but larger declines by 2085 (-2 to -26%), depending on the Representative Climate Pathway (RCP). Uncertainty due to different climate models became larger than year-to-year variability by the end of the century. Therefore, adapting potato cultivars and cropping systems to climate change needs be explored to ensure future food security, particularly in high population growth regions.

See more from this Division: ASA Section: Climatology and Modeling
See more from this Session: Examples of Model Applications in Field Research Oral