The Uncertainty in Response of Crop Models to Environmental Factors.

S. Asseng¹, F. Ewert², C. Rosenzweig³, J.W. Jones¹, J.L. Hatfield⁴, A. Ruane³, K.J. Boote⁵, P. Thorburn⁶, R.P. Rötter⁷, D. Cammarano¹, N. Brisson⁸,^9,#, B. Basso^10,11,12, P. Martre^13,14, D. Ripoche¹⁵, P. Bertuzzi¹⁵, P. Steduto¹⁶, L. Heng¹⁷, M.A. Semenov¹⁸, P. Stratonovitch¹⁸, C. Stockle¹⁹, G. O’Leary²⁰, P.K. Aggarwal²¹, S. Naresh Kumar²², C. Izaurralde²³, J.W. White²⁴, L.A. Hunt²⁵, R. Grant²⁶, K.C. Kersebaum²⁷, T. Palosuo⁷, J. Hooker²⁸, T. Osborne²⁹, J. Wolf³⁰, I. Supit³⁰, J.E. Olesen³¹, J. Doltra³², C. Nendel²⁷, S. Gayler³³, J. Ingwersen³⁴, E. Priesack³⁵, T. Streck³⁴, F. Tao³⁶, C. Müller37, K. Waha³⁷, R. Goldberg³, C. Angulo², I. Shcherbak¹¹, C. Biernath³⁵, D. Wallach³⁸, M. Travasso³⁹, A. Challinor^40,41

[1] Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA, email: sasseng@ufl.edu, jimj@ufl.edu, davide.cammarano@ufl.edu

[2] Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, Universität Bonn, 53115, Germany, email: fewert@uni-bonn.de, klav@uni-bonn.de

[3] NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, email: cynthia.rosenzweig@nasa.gov, aruane@giss.nasa.gov, ccrag1@yahoo.com

[4] National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, Ames, IA 50011, email: jerry.hatfield@ars.usda.gov,

[5] Department of Agronomy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0500, USA, email: kjboote@ufl.edu,

[6] CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Dutton Park QLD 4102, Australia, email: peter.thorburn@csiro.au,

[7] Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, FI-50100 Mikkeli, Finland, email: reimund.rotter@mtt.fi & taru.palosuo@mtt.fi,

[8] INRA, UMR0211 Agronomie, F- 78 750 Thiverval-Grignon, France,

[9] AgroParisTech, UMR0211 Agronomie, F- 78 750 Thiverval-Grignon, France,

[10] University of Potenza, Potenza, PZ 85100, Italy, email: brunobasso1@gmail.com,

[11]Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA

[12]Institute Sustainable Resources, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia

[13] INRA, UMR1095 Genetic, Diversity and Ecophysiology of Cererals (GDEC), F-63 100 Clermont-Ferrand, France, email: pierre.marte@clermont.inra.fr,

[14] Blaise Pascal University, UMR1095 GDEC, F-63 170 Aubière, France

[15] INRA, INRA, US1116 AgroClim, F- 84 914 Avignon, France, email: dominique.ripoche@avignon.inra.fr,

[16] FAO, Rome, Italy, email: Pasquale.Steduto@fao.org,

[17] IAEA, Vienna, Austria, email: L.Heng@iaea.org,

[18] Centre for Mathematical and Computational Biology, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts, AL5 2JQ, UK, email: mikhail.semenov@bbsrc.ac.uk,

[19] Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-6120, email: stockle@wsu.edu,

[20] Landscape & Water Sciences, Department of Primary Industries, Horsham 3400, Australia, email: garry.O'leary@dpi.vic.gov.au,

[21] CCAFS, IWMI, NASC Complex, DPS Marg, New Delhi 12, India, email: pkaggarwal.iari@gmail.com,

[22] Division of Environmental Sciences, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi 110 012, India, email: nareshkumar.soora@gmail.com,

[23] Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD 20740, USA, email: cesar.izaurralde@pnnl.gov,

[24] Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, AZ 85138, USA, email: jeffrey.white@ars.usda.gov,

[25] Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada, N1G 2W1, email: thunt@uoguelph.ca,

[26] Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada T6G 2E3, email: Robert.Grant@ales.ualberta.ca,

[27] Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany, email:ckersebaum@zalf.de & nendel@zalf.de,

[28] School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, RG6 6AR, UKemail: j.hooker@reading.ac.uk,

[29] NCAS & Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, UK,email: t.m.osborne@reading.ac.uk,

[30] Plant Production Systems & Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands, email: joost.wolf@wur.nl & iwan.supit@wur.nl,

[31] Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, 8830, Tjele, Denmark, email: jorgene.olesen@agrsci.dk,

[32] Agricultural Research and Training Centre (CIFA), Cantabria Government, 39600 Muriedas, Spain, email: jordidoltra@cifacantabria.org,

[33] WESS-Water & Earth System Science Competence Cluster, University of Tübingen, 727074 Tübingen, Germany, email: Sebastian.gayler@uni-tuebingen.de,

[34] Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Universität Hohenheim, 70599 Stuttgart, email: joachim.ingwersen@uni-hohenheim.de & tstreck@uni-hohenheim.de,

[35] Institute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, D-85764, Germany, email: priesack@helmholtz-muenchen.de & christian.biernath@helmholtz-muenchen.de,

[36] Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, China, email: taofl@igsnrr.ac.cn,

[37]Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany, email: christoph.mueller@pik-potsdam.de & katharina.waha@pik-postdam.de,

[38] INRA, UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et développement territorial (AGIR), 31326 Castanet-Tolosan Cedex, France, email: daniel.wallach@toulouse.inra.fr,

[39] Institute for Climate and Water, INTA-CIRN, 1712 Castelar, Argentina,

email: mtravasso@cnia.inta.gov.ar,

[40] Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK, email: a.j.challinor@leeds.ac.uk,

⁴¹ CGIAR Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS),

^#Dr. Nadine Brisson died during the study in 2011.

Crop simulation models are widely used to study the response of environmental factors on cropping systems. Twenty-seven wheat models have been tested in a Wheat Pilot Study as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org). Simulations were carried out for detailed field experiments from four contrasting environments in The Netherlands, Argentina, India and Australia. The crop models simulated soil water and N dynamics, crop water and N uptake, biomass growth and yield components using standardized protocols. The sensitivities of crop model responses to a range of single and combined soil, management and climate conditions were compared. Implications of model choice in relation to varying environmental conditions, the need for multi-model analysis and model improvements are discussed.

See more from this Division: ASA Section: Global Agronomy
See more from this Session: Symposium--Global Soil Mapping in a Changing World: I

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