Migration of Agriculture Back to the Southeast As An Adaptation to Climate Change.

It is the purpose of this talk to discuss whether agricultural food, fiber and bio-fuel production can be sustained in the U.S. through a migration of production back to the Southeastern U.S. under an irrigation assisted rain-fed agricultural system. Migration of production back to the Southeast, if sustainable, would be an adaptation strategy to climate change and provide additional capacity for long-term food, fuel and fiber security. The assessment of this option requires the use of climate change projections, crop models, hydrological models and ecosystem models.  The remarkable U.S. agricultural production from irrigation in arid climates in the 20^th century may contract substantially in the next century, and thus might affect US food security as a whole. At the same time during the last century grain production became concentrated in a few states in the deep water holding soils of the upper Midwest. This concentration leaves U.S. food and bio-fuel production vulnerable to long-term or severe mid-west regional drought. In the last century, the Southeast (SE) with sporadic growing season precipitation and poor water holding soils could not compete economically with the highly efficient production in the West and Midwest and lost substantial agricultural production. The Southeast may be in a unique position relative to climate change and population growth compared to other parts of the country. While regional precipitation changes are uncertain, the IPCC concluded that dry areas are likely to become drier and wet areas wetter. It is also a hydrologic irony, that with the large water consuming natural vegetation in the SE, suburban and urban growth and land use change may actually reduce evapotranspiration so that population growth does not necessarily reduce water availability.