Predictive Modeling of the Effects of Climate Change on the Infestation Patterns of a Migratory Crop Pest Insect.

Climate change is projected to expand the distribution of warm-climate agricultural pests
with significant adverse economic consequences. Adapting U.S. agriculture to this
emerging problem requires the timely monitoring of pest movements, an understanding
of the meteorological factors that define migration, and the ability to forecast climateinduced
changes in infestation patterns. We propose to use fall armyworm, a major pest
in the Western Hemisphere, as a model system to address these objectives. The technical
resources available for fall armyworm provides an unprecedented opportunity to study
the effects of climate change on the migration of an important agricultural pest. We are in
the process of establishing a monitoring infrastructure that uses fall armyworm as a
bioindicator of climatic effects on migration. This will allow the development of
forecasting models to identify agricultural regions likely to face climate-induced
increases in fall armyworm pressure and thereby facilitate grower decision-making on
agricultural practices and crop choice. These objectives apply directly to the long-term
goal of improvements in the forecasting and controlling of pest outbreaks brought about
by climate variability and long-term climate change.