AgMIP Wheat Multi-Model Comparison With Hot Serial Cereal Experiment.

AgMIP Wheat team: S. Asseng, F. Ewert, P. Martre, D. Cammarano, B.A. Kimball, J.W. White, M.J. Ottman, G.W. Wall, M. Reynolds, P. Alderman, V. Prasad, D. Wallach, P.K. Aggarwal, B. Basso, C. Biernath, A.J. Challinor, G. De Sanctis, J. Doltra, E. Fereres, S. Gayler, G. Hoogenboom, L.A. Hunt, J. Ingwersen, R.C. Izaurralde, K.C. Kersebaum, A.K. Koehler, D. Lobell, C. Müller, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Nendel, G. O’Leary, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, E. Rezaei, R.P. Rötter, A. Ruane, M.A. Semenov, P. Steduto, C. Stöckle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, P. Thorburn, M. Vignjevic, K. Waha, E. Wang, J. Wolf, Y. Zhu To identify possible avenues for improving how models represent temperature effects on development, growth and yield formation, over 25 different dynamic wheat simulation models and one statistical model were compared with detailed measurements of the Hot Serial Cereal experiment from Maricopa, Arizona. Plantings in this experiment were made with an unusually wide range of planting dates and additional artificial warming via infra-red heating, creating a wide range of temperature environments. Management for water and nutrients, including nitrogen, was other-wise near-optimal. Model outputs were compared with measurements in a step-wise approach which enabled model accuracy to be attributed to specific model structures. 11 11 1