The Adaptation of US Corn Belt Maize Production to Climate Change and Its Impact on Yield.

Research on the impact of climate change on crop production has indicated an inverse relationship between high temperatures and maize yield. This has raised concern about the ability of US maize production to adapt to the impact of climate change. Historical weather trends have shown that temperatures have increased worldwide. In the last three decades, warmer and drier spring conditions in the US have been associated with earlier maize planting, which would have alone resulted in reduced yields. However, yields have continued to increase at the historical rate of approximately 90 kg ha^-1 year^-1 (1.8 bu A^-1 year^-1). The objectives of the current study were (i) to confirm and document the changes in maize phenology and climate in the US Corn Belt during the past 30 years, (ii) to link the observed yield increase to specific genetic improvement processes and, (iii) to quantify the possible impact of climate change on maize yield in 2050.