Modeling Approach for Prediction of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield : In South Korea.

A suitable climate condition is essential for stable growth of crops and it directly leads to an increase in crop production. With global warming and increasing of extreme climate evens, climate change may impose positive or negative effects on crop growth and yield.

The traditional crop productivity simulations based on crop models are normally site-specific. In this study, the spatial crop model is developed by integrating Geographical Information System (GIS) with Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) model to simulate regional crop growth and yield.

The GIS-based EPIC model is applied to simulate the average rice and maize yield of 1980s, 1990s, 2000s in South Korea. We compared with the statistical yields and result of simulation, and then find out trend caused from climate data. After the using past climate data, we can simulate the future crop yield based on climate change scenario.

We can found simulation accuracy of the GIS-based EPIC model is acceptable through the compared with statistical yield. The simulation accuracy can be improved by using the detailed field management information, such as irrigation, fertilization and tillage. In future climate, based on climate change scenario, rice and maize yield will vary compared at now. In near future our target crop yield showed to increasing pattern, but in distance future our target crop yield, showed to decrease pattern

The future crop research, beyond the predicted to domestic crop yield through the crop model, we have to try to integrate with policy making framework. it can be using combat to climate change and lead to new paradigm on agriculture