Effects of El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Agroclimatic Zoning for Tomato in Mozambique.

Agroclimatic zoning is one of the most useful tools to reduce risks associated with climate variability. It is commonly used to map suitable areas and spatial, temporal and environmental bounds for crop production. These bounds, however, are not static and can vary with sources of climatic variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Incorporating information about primary drivers of interannual climate variability, like ENSO, also allows for better management adaptation. The main goal of this study was to create agroclimatic zoning maps according to the ENSO phases, El Niño and La Niña, with a focus on Mozambique, where such sources of information are limited. We chose to focus on tomato crop because of their high economic importance in the region and their cropping success is highly dependent on weather conditions. Gridded data of daily temperature and rainfall were collected between 1984 and 2013 from CFSR and FEWS-Net datasets provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Tomato growing cycles of 75, 90, and 105 days were evaluated considering 24 planting dates throughout the year. Each growing cycle and planting date was classified as ideal, marginal, or limiting according to the conditions for tomato development. Preliminary results have shown that fall and winter offer better conditions for the crop development in Mozambique, with less risk of climate related issues, whereas during summer, areas located at high elevations are favorable for the crop. In Mozambique El Niño is associated with higher than normal daily temperatures which increases chances of crop losses, whereas the opposite is observed during La Niña. Disseminating this information in a timely and accessible way will reduce climate risk for tomato production in Mozambique through the definition of location and planting dates with the lowest risks associated with climate variability.