A Retrospective and Prospective View of Climate Resiliency of US Maize Yield from 1984 to 2050.

Research on the impact of climate change on corn production has indicated an inverse relationship between high temperatures and corn yield. This has raised concern about the ability of US maize production to adapt to the impact of climate change. Unlike temperatures in much of the rest of the world, based on historical weather trends, temperatures have not increased substantially in the US Corn Belt over the last three decades .  Yield analysis shows that US Corn Belt yields have continued to increase at the historical rate of approximately 2 bu A^-1 year^-1.  According to the USDA Economic Research Service, adoption of new technologies is the primary factor in the increase in farm productivity since 1950 in the region. In order to predict future corn yields in this region, it is necessary to determine the potential for continued adoption of technological advancements in yield gains, and to quantify the potential interaction of these technologies with climate change factors. The objectives of the current study were (i) to quantify the contribution of technological changes that have contributed to current yield gains, (ii) to determine the mechanism by which these technological changes have contributed to yield gains and their interaction with climatic factors, and (iii) to quantify the possible impact of climate change on these technologies on US Corn Belt hybrid yields in 2050.  Public GHCN, NASA weather data and USDA NASS and Crop Progress data were analyzed in the current study to determine the mechanism of historical yield gains.  Future daily weather projections were generated  by combining historical daily observations from the GHCN network with 20 general circulation models taken from the latest archive of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).