Using Wetlandscape to Simulate Prairie Wetland Responses to Climate Change.

Modeling can simulate the effects of alternate future climates on wetland functioning; identify past effects (hindcast mode) when field data are not available; separate the climate signal from the “noise” inherent in natural systems; and assist scientists in deciding where and what to monitor to best detect climate change effects in real time.  Considerable data collected over a decade or longer are required to build, parameterize, and test, peer-reviewed models to produce credible projections. Key field data needed from multiple wetland basins include weather, hydrology (ground water, surface water, wetland bathymetry), and vegetation.  Our WETLANDSCAPE (WLS) model was built in this way during two decades of modeling and field research at multiple sites in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR).  This talk will provide examples of model output and potential effects of a range of future climates on wetland functioning and waterfowl favorability.  Overall, our modeling experiments have established that the several million functional wetlands remaining in the PPR are highly vulnerable to climate change, and for the most part, will be less likely to produce waterfowl in historic numbers.