Connecting Exposure to Extreme Temperature and Drought Effects to Crop Water Stress Using System's Thinking.

The success of sustained agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions of the world depends entirely on water availability. Crop water stress severely impacts crop yield. Estimating the exposure of agriculture to extreme temperature and drought can help us understand  key vulnerabilities and improve adaptive capacity, which is vital to secure and increase world food production to feed its growing population.  Exposure in this study is defined as degree of stress on a system. The objective of this study is to attempt to connect the crop water stress to exposure of crops to extreme temperature and drought using a conceptual model developed using systems thinking approaches. For this purpose extreme temperature and drought are represented using indicators.  Crop water stress is obtained using simulations from Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT an hydrologic model). The connections are made using novel systems thinking approach.