AgMIP-Wheat Climate Change Simulations on Global Wheat Yield.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project has shown that crop model uncertainties increase with higher temperatures and with combined increased temperature and CO₂, but multi-model ensemble medians have proven with field observations to be a good predictor of observed data under various growing conditions. Applying multi-model ensemble median simulations showed that global wheat production declines by 6% for each degree of global temperature increase. Such simulated impact is similar to temperature impact assessments using statistical regression methods with aggregated farm records. Building on the temperature impact study, new simulations of increased temperature were combined with elevated CO₂ and rainfall changes to assess their impact on yield. A possible crop breeding option for adaptations to climate change has been explored at local, regional and global scales and will be discussed.